The company, which makes everything from soaps and shampoos to tea and detergents, will announce its earnings on 24 April. As a bellwether for the broader consumer goods sector, HUL’s results are closely watched for signals on rural recovery, input cost inflation, and the resilience of discretionary spending.
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Much like the December quarter, when volumes were flat and revenue rose 2% year-on-year, the March quarter is expected to offer more of the same. According to Nuvama Securities, revenue is likely to climb 2% on the back of modest price hikes, while underlying volumes remain stagnant, weighed down by ongoing weakness in key categories like tea and soaps.
“Ebitda is also projected to grow by 2% year-on-year. While home care and hair care should maintain strong volume growth, tea and soaps may face pressure due to grammage reductions and price increases,” analysts at Nuvama Securities said.
Price hikes (2%) undertaken mid-Q3FY25 could flow into March quarter earnings, albeit offset by price cuts in detergents, the analysts added.
Gross margins are projected to shrink by 107 basis points year-on-year due to inflation in palm oil and tea, though Ebitda margins may improve by 25 basis points to 23.4%, helped by cuts in advertising and other cost controls.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services also expects a muted quarter, projecting just 1% volume growth, down from 2% a year ago.
“We model a 1% volume growth, impacted by price increases in soaps and tea,” the brokerage said in a report.
“The company has implemented a low single-digit price hike across its portfolio. HUL’s growth has been impacted by multiple factors, including adverse mix dynamics, input cost inflation, and subdued seasonal demand, collectively moderating the overall growth trajectory,” it added in the consumer sector preview released earlier this month.
The brokerage firm expects a 3% rise in HUL revenues for the quarter.
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Analysts at Emkay Securities are similarly cautious, forecasting flat volumes and a modest 1.5% increase in revenue.
“Overall, a modest 1.5% revenue growth with flat volume is anticipated for the fourth quarter, with price growth moderating to around 1.5% due to increased promotional activities. While near-term demand remains challenging, HUL’s management anticipates a volume growth recovery in the second half of the fiscal year 2026,” they said.
The company continues to battle category-level pressures, rising competition, and a slow rural recovery. A shorter winter dented sales of seasonal products, while promotions in the home care segment are eroding earlier gains from price hikes. “With stable margins, we expect Ebitda and earnings growth to remain in low single digits,” Emkay said.
In the previous quarter, HUL reported a 2% year-on-year increase in sales to ₹15,195 crore, while net profit rose 19% to ₹3,001 crore. However, management had flagged signs of a slowdown in urban demand, even as rural areas showed gradual recovery.
“Urban growth continues to moderate while gradual rural recovery is sustained,” chief executive Rohit Jawa had said during the December earnings call, adding that a shift towards smaller packs reflects changing consumption patterns under current macroeconomic stress.
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Jefferies analysts, too, expect HUL to post flat volumes—making it one of the weakest among its FMCG peers. “Demand trends in the March quarter remained broadly similar to the December quarter, marked by subdued urban, even while there was slight recovery in rural,” they said, noting that volume growth across the sector is expected to hover around 2%, with a few exceptions like Marico, Nestle India, and Varun Beverages.
